Future Energy Scenarios – what are they, how do we deliver them, why bother?

July saw the release of NESO’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES). This annual event is guaranteed to stir up a great deal of interest and debate within energy circles, but why should anyone outside the industry care?

In this blog, we look at what FES is for, why it’s important, and examine why this year’s update supports optimism about the UK’s clean power targets.

For those of you not in the know, the National Energy System Operator (NESO)’s many responsibilities include planning for the future. In the UK, that means helping ensure we’re on a path not just to meet the government’s Clean Power 2030 action plan, but that we’re building a grid that can cope with the additional demands of net zero – and the fundamental, enabling role that renewable electricity will play in getting there.

As part of its planning, NESO publishes the Future Energy Scenarios: a yearly modelling exercise in which it looks at specific pathways through which the UK’s power network can successfully rise to the challenge of net zero. But in fact, it’s not so straightforward: there’s a fourth ‘counterfactual’ pathway, outlining worst-case progress, resulting in net zero being missed.

This year’s FES runs with the previously introduced pathways to net zero: Electric Engagement, Hydrogen Evolution, and Holistic Transition. In the former, net zero is met mainly through electrified demand, with smart technology helping reduce energy usage. The hydrogen pathway models rapid progress in hydrogen, particularly in decarbonising industry and heat, while the holistic scenario mixes elements from both.

New this year is a focus on the timescale of change, and four distinct waves on the way to achieving our targets. NESO defines these as today’s Foundation, or starting point, and the Acceleration that’s already underway as new plans and policies begin to move the energy transition forward at pace. From 2030 to 2040 it anticipates a period of Growth, where momentum from the Acceleration phase results in the ‘mainstreaming’ of clean tech and the transformation of industry. From 2040 comes Horizon, where remaining emissions are reduced or removed.

NESO also explores four ‘critical enablers’ for success: energy efficiency, demand flexibility, infrastructure and energy supply, and switching to low-carbon technologies. The breadth of these is a clear reflection of the fact that hitting net zero entails more than just connecting more renewables up to the grid.

This thinking, and the pathways that provide credible scenarios resulting in the UK hitting net zero, are neither policy nor prescriptions. So why does NESO bother?

An exercise in possibility

The point is not to accurately lay down a single pathway for the UK electricity network. Instead, FES is an exercise in ideas, setting out to engage government, the industry and its regulators in exploring credible

plans. By modelling multiple – often very different – ways in which we meet net zero, NESO can accelerate our understanding of what’s feasible. In turn, this stimulates investment and development of the network.

But while the successful pathways may be different, each is linked by common features and requirements. There’s no path to net zero without the wholesale adoption of renewables, for example, and no renewable-dominated grid without changes in the way we generate, store and consume electricity. And while – 25 years before the target – our route to net zero isn’t clear, certain key requirements already are.

It’s evident the grid will need investment. Energy secretary Ed Miliband’s decision not to pursue zonal pricing inevitably means more transmission links connecting centres of renewable generation with centres of use. It’s equally evident that the transmission status quo – a handful of incumbents with no financial incentive or regulatory imperative to innovate – will need to change. Challengers like Eclipse stand ready to compete as independent transmission network operators – just as soon as Ofgem allows it – helping drive the shakeup the system needs.

For now, the FES should be a source of optimism. Here are three carefully evaluated, scientifically validated ways in which the UK’s electricity grid can support the nation’s clean power and net zero goals. The target is not just achievable; our industry already knows it will be achieved – even if we’re not yet certain of the details.

You can access the full FES outlook here.

Need to get connected? The Eclipse Power Group has a range of comprehensive solutions across the power landscape to get your project connected to the grid.

Future Energy Scenarios – what are they, how do we deliver them, why bother?

An exercise in possibility

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